Quality over Quantity

A few months ago, I an article titled: “the Auston Matthews dilemma” which was about how the Leafs would lose whenever Matthews scored a goal. Writing that article got me thinking to myself: “Who has the luckiest and unluckiest shot on the team?” Well, with the NHL season over, I had plenty of time to crunch the numbers.

I decided to only include players who scored 10+ goals so the percentages wouldn’t be ridiculous, I counted multiple goal games as one, and powerplay and shorthanded goals are all counted the same as a normal goal.

Who has the luckiest shot-.png

Here is the list from luckiest to unluckiest shot on the team:

Leo Komarov: 91% chance of winning

Connor Brown: 88% chance of winning

James van Riemsdyk: 81% chance of winning

William Nylander: 67% chance of winning

Mitch Marner: 65% chance of winning

Nazem Kadri: 63% chance of winning

Auston Matthews: 61% chance of winning

Tyler Bozak: 63% chance of winning

Zach Hyman: 50% chance of winning

As you can see, even though Auston Matthews has 40 goals, Uncle Leo is pulling through for the team with that 91% chance of winning.

I guess it really is quality over quantity.

(I’m kidding by the way. This does not mean that Leo Komarov is a better hockey player than Auston Matthews)


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