A few months ago, I an article titled: “the Auston Matthews dilemma” which was about how the Leafs would lose whenever Matthews scored a goal. Writing that article got me thinking to myself: “Who has the luckiest and unluckiest shot on the team?” Well, with the NHL season over, I had plenty of time to crunch the numbers.
I decided to only include players who scored 10+ goals so the percentages wouldn’t be ridiculous, I counted multiple goal games as one, and powerplay and shorthanded goals are all counted the same as a normal goal.
Here is the list from luckiest to unluckiest shot on the team:
Leo Komarov: 91% chance of winning
Connor Brown: 88% chance of winning
James van Riemsdyk: 81% chance of winning
William Nylander: 67% chance of winning
Mitch Marner: 65% chance of winning
Nazem Kadri: 63% chance of winning
Auston Matthews: 61% chance of winning
Tyler Bozak: 63% chance of winning
Zach Hyman: 50% chance of winning
As you can see, even though Auston Matthews has 40 goals, Uncle Leo is pulling through for the team with that 91% chance of winning.
I guess it really is quality over quantity.
(I’m kidding by the way. This does not mean that Leo Komarov is a better hockey player than Auston Matthews)